Linux Market Share Within Web Server Sector to Grow

Rawlson King, theWHIR.com

January 7, 2002 - Linux continues to dominate the growing market for Web servers. According to IDC (idc.com), a leading IT research consultancy, Linux market share within the Web server sector stands at approximately a third and will grow to 41 per cent by 2005.

This research factoid indicates that despite the implosion of the dot-com economy, Linux continues to demonstrate its economic relevance. Indeed, Linux continues to be popular in IT management circles because the operating system is inexpensive, making it a more attractive option to deploy in corporate environments, especially in the midst of economic uncertainty.

Despite the fact that Microsoft's operating system will continue to lead the Web server marketplace in terms of deployment, industry analysts expect slower market growth for the software titan in this area. Slowdown in deployment will be attributable to Microsoft's new licensing framework and technical issues that have historically afflicted the platform.

Concern amongst IT professionals is serious. A recent IDC study found that 60 per cent of Microsoft (microsoft.com) customers do not understand the ramifications of the company's new licensing plan, and 15 per cent are so concerned that they have begun to examine alternative technologies such as Linux.

Information technology and systems managers are also apprehensive about the stability of the platform. Many problems have plagued the Microsoft Web server environment over the last year, including security. Indeed, Microsoft received such heavy criticism after falling foul to a number of major security problems that Gartner Group (gartnergroup.com), another leading IT research consultancy, suggested that all Microsoft Web platform users switch to a more secure environment.

Proponents of Linux, of course, bill the operating system as the more component choice and believe that the slowing economy will have a positive influence over the operating system's overall market share growth. Empirical evidence indicates however that Linux market share will most likely be restricted only to the Web server marketplace and will be constrained elsewhere.

While the most successful commercial Linux operations have been software vendors such as RedHat, Inc. (redhat.com) and MandrakeSoft (mandrakesoft.com), who are distributors of Web server and e-business platforms, growth and interest in Linux has been rather flat in both the desktop and corporate components of the software market.

Indeed, the desktop market was characterized by the collapse of high-profile Linux ventures such as desktop software developer Eazel (eazel.com) over the past year. Other noteworthy software developers such as Corel Corp. (corel.com) also halted production on creating a more viable desktop due to lack of mass-market demand.

These failures however have not entirely stymied the development of more robust consumer applications. Former MP3.Com chief executive Michael Robertson is preparing to launch a Linux-Windows hybrid operating system entitled "Lindows" (lindows.com) that is aimed at the consumer marketplace.

Industry analysts however do not believe en masse that such an effort will create a sudden flood of demand for consumer Linux applications. This is because Linux is conceived more as a complex Web server platform than a consumer desktop operating system. Since over 90 per cent of personal computers are utilizing some variant of Microsoft software and dependent applications for their desktop operations, analysts are not convinced that swift conversion to Linux can be enticed.

Industry analysts also do not expect much demand in the corporate marketplace. According to a recent Goldman Sachs (www.gs.com) survey, 65 per cent of executives in Fortune 1000 companies had no intentions of using Linux for their internal operations in 2002. Though Linux can be obtained for free, deployment of the operating system could potentially increase IT costs, due to the lack of solid groupware applications, and because of the increased technical support required to introduce a new operating system.

For these reasons, large corporations will continue largely to use the OS as a Web server platform. Accordingly, expect Linux and other open-source developers to continue to hone in on enhancing Web server and e-business environments within the new year.